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You Chose Player 2

Player 2's vast experience is given a lot of weight as a predictor of this player's future batting average being close to their past average of 0.300.

Player 1's limited experience is given little weight because an average player could easily have had the same or better experience (about a 1 in 6 chance).

Experience rating is based on the same principle. When firms have more experience, as measured by expected losses, more weight is given to their prior claims' costs when predicting their future claims' costs.

The specific weights are based on actuarial studies of the relationship between the weights and the amount of experience, keeping in mind that more experience deserves more weight.

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